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May 09, 2008 03:47 pm
A lot is at stake in May 20 primary
There are presidential choices, a race for U.S. Senate, congressional races and state legislative races on the ballot in this year's primary and general elections, but Kentucky probably won't affect the presidential nominations and voters aren't likely to change party make-up in Frankfort.
By Ronnie Ellis
CNHI News Service
FRANKFORT, Ky. — This is the primary election Kentuckians have longed to see – one in which the voices of Kentucky voters might matter in selecting the next president of the United States.
But there’s a problem. It may be over by May 20. On the Republican side, it already is. Arizona Sen. John McCain has had the Republican nomination wrapped up for two months. And after last week’s big loss to Barack Obama in North Carolina and closer-than-expected win in Indiana, some prominent Democrats are suggesting Sen. Hillary Clinton should get out of the Democratic race.
Secretary of State Trey Grayson said turnout in the presidential primary four years ago was only 15 percent and while he hasn’t calculated a prediction for this year, he said this week he expects turnout to be up.
That might affect some down ticket races. Heading those is the Democratic primary to choose a nominee to take on Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell who faces token opposition from Daniel Essek, a truck driver from Whitley County. On the Democratic side are seven active candidates and one, Andrew Horne, whose name will appear on the ballot but who has withdrawn. Votes for him will not be counted.
U.S. Senate:
Two wealthy Louisville businessmen, Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer, are focusing on each other. Fischer attacked Lunsford in television ads about Lunsford’s past businesses, including a company which owned nursing homes and was cited by Medicaid and Medicare for over billing.
Former Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman and political consultant Danny Briscoe, who is not working for either, said Fischer’s advertising isn’t effective. Briscoe said no one knows Fischer while Lunsford has wide name recognition.
“Fischer’s commercials have been so bad, he ought to sue his people for making them,” Briscoe said.
Lunsford may have his own problems. Despite spending $14 million of his own money running for governor in the last two Democratic primaries, he never got as much as a third of the vote. In 2003, he endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher. Some Democrats haven’t forgiven him.
Other Democrats, however, say it’s more important to defeat McConnell than to dwell on Lunsford’s past transgressions. Briscoe said McConnell will be helped by national politics. He’ll be running in a conservative state with Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket and he has plenty of money to spend.
The other Democrats in the primary are Michael Cassaro, a Prospect physician; David Wylie of Harrodsburg; David Lynn Williams of Glasgow; James Rice of Campbellsville; and Kenneth Stepp of Manchester.
U.S. Congress:
Two congressional races should be competitive – the third in Jefferson County and the second which stretches from Owensboro to Elizabethtown to Bowling Green and includes a small portion of Jefferson County.
In the third, Anne Northup is expected to win the Republican primary in her quest to regain the seat she held for 10 years but lost to incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth in 2006. Generally Kentucky’s most liberal district, it includes the affluent east end of the county and the largely African American west end of Louisville. Obama is expected to bring out large numbers of voters in the west end, which could benefit Yarmuth who endorsed Obama.
Two Daviess County Democrats, Judge/Executive Reid Haire and state Sen. David Boswell, are running for the Democratic nomination for the open second district seat vacated by the retiring Republican Ron Lewis. Boswell, a former Commissioner of Agriculture, is better known outside of Daviess County, but Haire has raised far more money and is advertising on television.
The winner will face state Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green. The district has a Democratic edge in voter registration, but it typically votes Republican in federal elections. State Sen. President David Williams said Guthrie will also benefit from running down ticket with McConnell while Obama at the top may hurt the Democrat.
State House:
Only 38 of the 100 House districts will be contested, and they won’t threaten Democratic control of the chamber. In the 26th, Democrat Mike Weaver of Elizabethtown will try to win back his old sear from Republican Tim Moore. And in the 11th, Herb McKee is challenging fellow Democrat David Watkins in the primary. Watkins introduced a bill to increase the cigarette tax in the House.
In the 63rd, Republican Will Terwort will challenge freshman Alicia Webb-Edgington in a primary. The winner will meet Democrat Ken Padgett in the fall. Freshman Democrat Sannie Overly is challenged by fellow Democrats Jim Lovell and Roy Baber. In the 74th, Richard Henderson faces fellow Democrat Billy Ray Fawns.
In the 100th, Republican Mike Stewart will face one of three Democrats, Kevin Sinnette, Bobby Jack Woods or Cyrus Reynolds for the open seat vacated by retiring John Vincent.
State Senate:
Gov. Steve Beshear vowed last year to help Democrats retake control of the Senate, but the math is against that happening.
“It’s basically numerically impossible for Democrats to take control,” Williams said. That’s buttressed by the special election Republican Brandon Smith won in the 30th district earlier this year which increased Republican control by one, to 22-15-1. Bob Leeper of Paducah is an independent.
Former governor and state Sen. Julian Carroll, D-Frankfort, said he thinks Democrats could pick up as many as “three or four seats, and I’ll be disappointed if we don’t pick up two.”
Democrats are hopeful in the first where Carroll Hubbard and Rick Johnson battle in the Democratic primary to take on Republican incumbent Ken Winters. And in the 9th, Democrats think they have a great chance to pick up the seat vacated by Republican Richie Sanders. Democrats Steve Newberry, John Rogers, and Horace Johnson are vying for the chance to face the winner of a three-way Republican primary between Jeff Jobe, Bob Bryant or David Givens.
But Republicans have hopes with challengers Doug Hawkins against incumbent Perry Clark in Jefferson County and Williams mentioned Republican Bob Heleringer who is challenging Jefferson County Democratic incumbent Tim Shaughnessey.
Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com.
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