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April 25, 2008 01:37 pm
Clinton is still down but far from out
Editorial: Who is winning the popular vote right now depends on how it is counted.
CNHI News Service
— Sen. Hillary Clinton's slim chance of wresting the Democratic nomination for president from Sen. Barack Obama got a little less slim with her 10 percentage-point victory in Pennsylvania Tuesday.
Clinton's 55 percent to 45 percent win was certainly enough to justify her remaining in the race, despite calls from some Democratic leaders that she step aside for the sake of party unity.
It appears that neither Obama nor Clinton will collect enough elected delegates to reach the 2,025 mark needed to secure the nomination. The decision will rest with the 795 superdelegates — party leaders, senators, governors and the like who get to cast votes at the convention.
Clinton now has two strategies by which she can win enough superdelegates to her side to earn the nomination.
First, she can try to convince them that only she can win the big, industrial battleground states needed to beat Republican John McCain. Clinton has won every big industrial state except Obama's home state of Illinois. Another test comes for Clinton in Indiana May 6.
Clinton's second option is to win the popular vote. Many Democratic leaders have been insisting that the superdelegates should not usurp the "will of the people" despite the fact that is precisely what they exist to do.
Who is winning the popular vote right now, depends, of course, on how it is counted.
As it stands today, the delegates from Michigan and Florida will not be seated at the Democratic convention, because those states broke party rules in setting the dates of their primaries. But Clinton was on the ballot in both states and received votes there. Her campaign has advocated counting those votes and seating those delegates, lest voters there be "disenfranchised."
The popular vote tally right now discounting Michigan and Florida is 14.4 million for Obama, 13.9 million for Clinton — about a 500,000 vote margin in favor of Obama.
If the Michigan and Florida votes are counted, Clinton takes a 15.1 million to 15.0 million lead.
Even if the Michigan and Florida votes are never counted, Clinton can take the popular vote lead by winning the remaining states she's expected to win by margins similar to her Pennsylvania victory, while keeping close to Obama in the states he's expected to win. Clinton cut Obama's popular vote lead by 215,000 in Pennsylvania alone.
If Clinton can pull off a popular vote victory, it will be difficult for the superdelegates to deny her the nomination.
All this has made for the most interesting political contest in decades. It's a race that isn't likely to end soon.
The Salem (Mass.) News
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